Buyer Demand Surges in Metro Vancouver This October: Is the Market Turning?

After a sluggish year of sales hovering below historical averages, Metro Vancouver’s real estate market saw a striking surge in buyer demand in October. According to the Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR), residential sales registered on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) totalled 2,632 transactions, marking a 31.9% jump from October 2023’s 1,996 sales. While still 5.5% below the ten-year seasonal average, these figures indicate a notable comeback as buyers appear to respond to recent mortgage rate cuts.

What’s Driving the Demand?

“Typically, reductions to mortgage rates boost demand,” explains Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics. “The strong October sales numbers suggest buyers may finally be responding to lower borrowing costs after waiting on the sidelines for months.” With the Bank of Canada implementing four consecutive rate cuts this year, and the possibility of more to come, many buyers seem encouraged to take action, reducing the impact of higher home prices with lower borrowing costs.

Inventory Boost Brings More Options to Buyers

As buyer demand climbs, so does inventory. October 2024 saw 5,452 new listings across detached, attached, and apartment properties—a 16.9% increase over the previous October and 20% above the ten-year average. This expansion brings the total number of homes listed for sale in Metro Vancouver to 14,477, which is 24.8% higher than October 2023’s listings and over 26% above the seasonal average.

While a more abundant inventory often leads to a balanced market, the rising sales-to-active listings ratio, now at 18.8%, suggests a tilt toward seller’s market conditions, especially in attached and apartment segments. Detached homes, with a ratio of 13.4%, are also inching closer to seller’s territory, signaling that the recent period of price moderation might be waning.

Pricing Trends and Buyer Preferences by Property Type

Despite increased activity, overall property prices have yet to climb sharply. The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for Metro Vancouver is $1,172,200, down 1.9% year-over-year and 0.6% month-over-month. Here’s a breakdown by property type:

• Detached Homes: October saw 724 detached home sales, a 25.5% increase from last year. The benchmark price for detached homes rose slightly, up 0.3% from October 2023 to $2,002,900, though down 1% from September 2024.

• Apartments: Apartment sales led the way, with a 33.4% year-over-year jump, reaching 1,393 transactions. The benchmark price for apartments is $757,200, marking a modest 1.6% decrease from October 2023 and a 0.6% dip from September.

• Townhomes: Attached properties saw the most significant increase in demand, with a 40.7% rise in sales over last year, totalling 501 transactions. The benchmark price for townhomes climbed 0.4% year-over-year to $1,108,800, experiencing a slight 0.9% rise month-over-month.

Is Vancouver Heading for a Seller’s Market?

The uptick in sales and tighter inventory ratios suggest a potential shift toward a seller’s market, especially in townhome and apartment segments where ratios have surpassed 20%. Detached properties remain more balanced but may follow suit if demand continues to outpace listings in the coming months.

Lis cautions, however, that “one data point does not make a trend.” Although October’s surge is promising, sustained growth in buyer demand over the next several months would confirm the market’s recovery and potentially drive prices up.

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

For buyers, the current market offers a window to secure properties before a potential price increase. The return of lower mortgage rates presents an opportunity, especially for those targeting apartments and townhomes. For sellers, the increased activity and dwindling inventory levels may bring more favorable conditions, allowing for quicker sales and competitive pricing.

While the October spike is significant, market watchers will be keenly observing whether these trends continue as mortgage rates fluctuate and buyer confidence grows.

Whether you’re considering taking advantage of lower mortgage rates as a buyer or thinking about selling while demand is strong, navigating the real estate market right now can be challenging. With years of experience in the Metro Vancouver market, I offer personalized guidance to help you make informed decisions that meet your goals. From finding the right property to setting the best price, I’m here to ensure a smooth, successful transaction. Reach out today, and let’s discuss how I can assist you with your real estate needs in this evolving market.